Modelling Spotlight on Sustainable Agriculture: SOL-m

Source: www.sojourneyfarm.com

Before we conclude the impact of agriculture on the environment (and say a hearty farewell to 2015!), I will quickly enlighten you with a dash of the modelling of sustainable agriculture, in particular, Sustainability and Organic-Livestock Modelling (SOL-m). The research of this study was published by the Food and Agriculture Organisation in 2013, and was designed to assess the environmental impacts of converting current livestock production systems into smaller, less resource intensive ones, with sustainable management of organic materials.

The model itself compares the effects of multiple production scenarios on land use and degradation, greenhouse gas emissions and global warming potential, nutrient flow, availability of food, consumption of fossil fuels, impact on biodiversity and more. It was constructed using conditional projections for food supply, food demand, and their interaction over time, by assessing available resources, land, human population, nutritional requirements and consumer choices. From here, environmental and social policy was also taken into consideration, and used linear programming to optimise each production scenario with respect to certain targets. 

The different scenarios investigated within the context of this study were:

• Scenario 1: baseline for 2050 (as predicted by FAO), alongside projections for population rate, dietary trends, expected yields, etc. Livestock feed was assumed to be remain consistent.
• Scenario 2: modelled a 50% decrease in concentrated feed, and measured number of livestock sufficient to give at least as many calories as Scenario 1.
• Scenario 3: the same as Scenario 2, but assumes no consumption of concentrates in livestock feed.
• Scenario 4: predicted conversion to organic livestock production, including organically produced feed concentrates. Again, measuring livestock to give at least as many calories as Scenario 1.
• Scenario 5: a combination of Scenarios 3 and 4 - a complete conversion to organic livestock farming, whilst omitting all concentrate in livestock feed.

The results concluded that Scenario 1 could not sustain a planet projected to reach a population of 9.6 billion by 2050 whilst still maintaining quality in the environment. In Scenarios 2 and 3, the model calculated substantial increases in food availability and security, whilst reducing environmental damage caused by deforestation and land degradation. This trend improved with higher reduction in livestock feed concentrates. Interestingly, although Scenario 4 measured significant decreases in greenhouse gas emissions and toxic material flow, it also predicted a lack of available food implying a need for more agricultural land (a finite resource). However, Scenario 5 yielded the best result, showing a positive results across the majority of environmental effects measured, suggesting that organic farming and diminished concentrate in livestock feed are two major factors necessary to achieve sustainable agriculture.