The Role of Climate, Conflicts and Economies on Future Food Security

Source: The Guardian

Climate change is undoubtedly one of the most pressing issues of our time, and will continue to worsen if our attitudes fail to change quickly. As discussed in a previous post, food insecurity is amongst our greatest concerns when it comes to climate change, with the potential to leave millions in food poverty and increased deaths. Some models predict that we have the capacity to produce enough food for the global population over the next 20 to 30 years, while others contest these claims, stating that climatic variations may see a net decline in major cereals, such as corn, wheat and rice, over the next 20 years. Despite this, multiple studies agree that our ability to expand production is slowly diminishing, as intensification and exploitation of resources reach their limits.

Diverse regions across the world face variable levels of food systems vulnerability due to the different physical, social and economic abilities to cope with climate change. Alongside the direct causes, like change in weather patterns, many indirect also causes play havoc with the future of global food security, such as disease, poverty and politics.

On the contrary, it’s not all bad news for everybody over the globe, as some areas may soon start to enjoy social and economic growth as a result of climate change…

Climatic Impact on Food Security

Source: http://i.imgur.com

With increasing global temperatures brings great changes in regional climates and weather patterns. Take, for example, the high temperatures and increased precipitation we have experienced this winter, leading to mass flooding and social devastation. In terms of food production, tropical and subtropical regions are highly in danger of decreased food security due to a rising risk of drought. It is estimated that many countries across these regions could receive less than the minimum 120 days necessary to produce sufficient cereal crop yields, plunging already typically vulnerable countries into economic decline. The increasing occurrence of El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events are thought to be related to enhanced dry spells, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. This implies that this region is likely to be the most at risk of hunger and food insecurity in upcoming years. Additionally, with heightened chance of drought, decreased precipitation and increased evaporation comes greater risk of water scarcity, which is forecasted to affect 5 billion people by 2025.

Although, these projections are largely based upon models and assumptions, which do not take into consideration the likelihood of technological development, adaptation strategies, international support, and political attitudes to climate change, which may see some of these regions less affected than predicted.

Interestingly, a majority of countries located in the temperate and arctic climates (mainly in the northern hemisphere) will experience an approximate 9% gain in arable land suitable for agriculture. This expansion will mainly be observed across Russia, North America, Central Asia and northern Europe, seeing respective boosts in local economies and availability of food. Despite this, it is postulated that, on the global scale, food reserves will remain relatively the same. So, this does not solve the distribution problem effectively! Additionally, this prediction of increased agricultural land in these regions does not take heavily into account the potential for unprecedented occurrences to take place, such as natural hazards, flooding/waterlogging, conflict or political instability.

Other Impacts on Food Security

However, as discussed above, climate is not a single deterministic factor of food security. Although it is the most quoted, many countries, such as Least Developed Countries (LDCs), struggle to cope with sudden shocks and variations due to a lack of infrastructure, financing, skilled labourers, and much more. The resulting issue tends to increase with heightened instability of external factors, instead of just climate change itself. For example, despite Europe, USA and eastern Australia having an incredibly high human threat to water security due to severe drought, climatic variations and detrimental agricultural practices, their ability to cope is high, as they are technologically and economically equipped to manage. (This demonstrated in the image below).

Source: Vörösmarty et al., 2010

Poverty is the most obvious aggravating factor, as it can lead to reduced technological capability, poor social infrastructure (housing, transport, etc.) and increased risk of disease. With food security reliant upon availability, access and utilisation, these characteristics are highly pertinent. To illustrate, lack of efficient transportation reduces access to food from outside regions (which is particularly concerning in the face of an environmental or social emergency), lack of trained agriculturalists or labourers impacts the quality and availability of food, and lack of economic security increases hunger and food poverty. Additionally, approximately half of all malnutrition is caused by non-food related aspects, such as HIV/AIDs and malaria, which are amplified by increasing global temperatures, and are often located in LDCs. That really is the icing on top of a shit-filled cake…

To add insult to injury, political alliances also have a huge part to play in the battle for food security. Alliances with countries who are well-equipped to deal with climate change, such as North America, Europe and Australia, may be ensured aid, safety and refuge in potentially dark times head, whereas less-economically developed countries may find themselves marginalised and left to fend for themselves (despite statistically contributing a whole lot LESS to global warming). Additionally, these political alliances can become vastly unpredictable, particularly during the current “war on terror”, born almost immediately after the 9/11 attacks in 2001, which continues to deconstruct and rebuild new political affiliations on a regular basis.
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AHHH! The voice is my head is almost screaming as I write… Which factors do you see as the most damaging to future food security? Climate change? Economic stability? Political stability? Health? Something completely different? Or a mixture of certain factors? Let me know in the comments!