(RE)Solutions to Reduce Future Climate Vulnerability in Food Systems

Source: www.wholebodyreboot.com

It is clear that one of the main issues we face when ensuring global food security is climate change. Therefore, it seems obvious that our main solution here is reducing global greenhouse gas emissions, switching to renewable sources of energy, adapting more sustainable agricultural practices, et cetera. As mentioned in other previous posts, we would benefit to staving off red meats and switching to more plant-based diets, as well as highly reducing our waste of food, and even our consumption. However, it's all well and good to say these things coming from a western perspective, where everything is readily available... Yet, most of our food is often grown abroad. Especially staple goods, like rice and wheat. It may be easy for us to switch these parts of our society, but it's not that simple for others developing nations, who rely on selling off rainforests for agricultural land (like in Amazonian countries), vast fossil fuel industries (like China) and large industries that need to increase their GDP at the expense of exploiting their workers. Things aren't always as black and white as they seem... But as privileged people, we should be doing more.

As mentioned in a few previous posts, food security is characterised by three main pillars: access, availability and utilisation. Therefore, to reduce vulnerability to external factors, such as climate change, conflict, disease and the likes, we need to ensure that we achieve security in all of these individual sects.

Availability

Gregory et al. (2005) believe that boosting production is our solution to increasing availability of food. Although this is difficult to dispute, they interpret this as increasing intensification of agricultural production, cultivating new agricultural land, increasing widespread use of chemical inputs (fertilisers, pesticides, etc.) and furthering development of genetically modified crops (which will be discussed in further detail next time).  Contrarily, the FAO disagree by stating that we need to move forward with "climate-smart" methods of agriculture. To be fair, we cannot expect nations to switch to sustainable practice, if they have not been educated or encouraged to do so. Therefore, we must campaign to reduce government subsidies that push small farmers to engage in unsustainable practices, and educate the globe about how to integrate pest management and boost yields with minimal fertilisers. Additionally, we need to increase international funding for the adaptation and mitigation of climate change for developing nations, as presented in the COP21 agreement, to reduce future global food insecurity.

Access

Poverty and infrastructure are two key elements impacting global access to food, which both boil down to economies and available money. Gregory et al. (2005) comment that we need to improve food distribution, such as enhancing transport infrastructure and political agreements that circulate food faster in cases of emergency, as well as increase economic access to food by introducing policies that cut out middle men, lowering price of production, encouraging economic growth and providing political stability. The latter point (to increase economic access) contradicts the ideas put forward for improving availability, as industrial practices reduce agricultural employment, increase production costs, and reduce GDP per capita. Thus, to improve access, we must introduce more sustainable and local agricultural practices, that serve local communities. In respect to improving transportation, this can indeed certainly be said for developing countries, however possibly less so for developed nations, who should in turn be working hard to reduce their carbon footprints within the transport sector, and instead look to grow and import food more locally.

Utilisation

Defined as the "appropriate use based on knowledge of basic nutrition and care", utilisation refers to the education of its users and producers. Thus, to increase security in food utilisation, our main priority must be to educate farmers, producers and consumers in sustainable and secure practices, healthy and environmentally-friendly eating, and the reduction of food waste.


In short, it's incredibly difficult to gauge how to best increase future food security, and one that policy-makers have found challenging for decades. In a world where individuals focus on gaining personal profit at the expense of others, and environmental degradation is a "future matter", it's hard to see everything for what it truly is, instead of how it may appear... As westerners, our smart phones are often made out of conflict materials, our clothes made through slave labour, our electricity provided at the expense of suffocating smog, GHG emissions and pollution, our food processed beyond recognition, and our wars that serve agendas to be seen fighting the "war on terror". We have it so easy, yet it is never enough... So, to really reduce your impact, think about what you need, why you need it, and how best to obtain it ethically and environmentally...

The Role of Climate, Conflicts and Economies on Future Food Security

Source: The Guardian

Climate change is undoubtedly one of the most pressing issues of our time, and will continue to worsen if our attitudes fail to change quickly. As discussed in a previous post, food insecurity is amongst our greatest concerns when it comes to climate change, with the potential to leave millions in food poverty and increased deaths. Some models predict that we have the capacity to produce enough food for the global population over the next 20 to 30 years, while others contest these claims, stating that climatic variations may see a net decline in major cereals, such as corn, wheat and rice, over the next 20 years. Despite this, multiple studies agree that our ability to expand production is slowly diminishing, as intensification and exploitation of resources reach their limits.

Diverse regions across the world face variable levels of food systems vulnerability due to the different physical, social and economic abilities to cope with climate change. Alongside the direct causes, like change in weather patterns, many indirect also causes play havoc with the future of global food security, such as disease, poverty and politics.

On the contrary, it’s not all bad news for everybody over the globe, as some areas may soon start to enjoy social and economic growth as a result of climate change…

Climatic Impact on Food Security

Source: http://i.imgur.com

With increasing global temperatures brings great changes in regional climates and weather patterns. Take, for example, the high temperatures and increased precipitation we have experienced this winter, leading to mass flooding and social devastation. In terms of food production, tropical and subtropical regions are highly in danger of decreased food security due to a rising risk of drought. It is estimated that many countries across these regions could receive less than the minimum 120 days necessary to produce sufficient cereal crop yields, plunging already typically vulnerable countries into economic decline. The increasing occurrence of El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events are thought to be related to enhanced dry spells, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. This implies that this region is likely to be the most at risk of hunger and food insecurity in upcoming years. Additionally, with heightened chance of drought, decreased precipitation and increased evaporation comes greater risk of water scarcity, which is forecasted to affect 5 billion people by 2025.

Although, these projections are largely based upon models and assumptions, which do not take into consideration the likelihood of technological development, adaptation strategies, international support, and political attitudes to climate change, which may see some of these regions less affected than predicted.

Interestingly, a majority of countries located in the temperate and arctic climates (mainly in the northern hemisphere) will experience an approximate 9% gain in arable land suitable for agriculture. This expansion will mainly be observed across Russia, North America, Central Asia and northern Europe, seeing respective boosts in local economies and availability of food. Despite this, it is postulated that, on the global scale, food reserves will remain relatively the same. So, this does not solve the distribution problem effectively! Additionally, this prediction of increased agricultural land in these regions does not take heavily into account the potential for unprecedented occurrences to take place, such as natural hazards, flooding/waterlogging, conflict or political instability.

Other Impacts on Food Security

However, as discussed above, climate is not a single deterministic factor of food security. Although it is the most quoted, many countries, such as Least Developed Countries (LDCs), struggle to cope with sudden shocks and variations due to a lack of infrastructure, financing, skilled labourers, and much more. The resulting issue tends to increase with heightened instability of external factors, instead of just climate change itself. For example, despite Europe, USA and eastern Australia having an incredibly high human threat to water security due to severe drought, climatic variations and detrimental agricultural practices, their ability to cope is high, as they are technologically and economically equipped to manage. (This demonstrated in the image below).

Source: Vörösmarty et al., 2010

Poverty is the most obvious aggravating factor, as it can lead to reduced technological capability, poor social infrastructure (housing, transport, etc.) and increased risk of disease. With food security reliant upon availability, access and utilisation, these characteristics are highly pertinent. To illustrate, lack of efficient transportation reduces access to food from outside regions (which is particularly concerning in the face of an environmental or social emergency), lack of trained agriculturalists or labourers impacts the quality and availability of food, and lack of economic security increases hunger and food poverty. Additionally, approximately half of all malnutrition is caused by non-food related aspects, such as HIV/AIDs and malaria, which are amplified by increasing global temperatures, and are often located in LDCs. That really is the icing on top of a shit-filled cake…

To add insult to injury, political alliances also have a huge part to play in the battle for food security. Alliances with countries who are well-equipped to deal with climate change, such as North America, Europe and Australia, may be ensured aid, safety and refuge in potentially dark times head, whereas less-economically developed countries may find themselves marginalised and left to fend for themselves (despite statistically contributing a whole lot LESS to global warming). Additionally, these political alliances can become vastly unpredictable, particularly during the current “war on terror”, born almost immediately after the 9/11 attacks in 2001, which continues to deconstruct and rebuild new political affiliations on a regular basis.
____________________________________________________________________________________________

AHHH! The voice is my head is almost screaming as I write… Which factors do you see as the most damaging to future food security? Climate change? Economic stability? Political stability? Health? Something completely different? Or a mixture of certain factors? Let me know in the comments!

Global Food Insecurity

Welcome back to the Global Hot Potato! For the first few weeks of our blogging journey, we will be looking specifically at one side of the coin: how food production practices impact the environment. So make sure you strap in, as we will be exploring a combination of research, articles, reports, and environmental models to measure past/present impacts and predict future events. But, before we delve into the gritty details of the food production industry, we should first take a brief look at the current challenges we face today when it comes to feeding the planet.

To adequately address these challenges, we must first consider what it means to be without them, i.e. food security. In 2002, the UN’s Food and Agricultural Organisation defined food security to be “a situation that exists when all people, at all times, have physical, social and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food that meets their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life”.[1]  We know through the prevalence of poverty across the globe that this has not yet been achieved. But why? Are there too many of us? Is there not enough food? What’s going on here?

A growing population has a massive impact on global food insecurity. Although it is hard to predict the potential carrying capacity of the Earth, the World Food Programme states that there is enough food produced globally to feed the entire population, which was last measured to be nearing 7.4 billion people. Yet, despite this, an estimated 793 million people live undernourished and in food poverty. Although there has been a decline since 1990-92 (Fig.1), that's still a whopping 10% of the world population!!! But, if there isn’t a global shortage of food, then why are there so many people living in food poverty?

Fig. 1: a comparison between the proportion and location of people in food poverty in 1990-1992 and 2014-2016

Image Source: Food and Agriculture Organization

The World Health Organisation considers there to be three cornerstones affecting food security: access, availability and use.

• Limited access to food can be largely attributed to increased poverty, where individuals do not possess the resources necessary to obtain sufficient nourishment. This was a particular topic on concern in 2008, when food prices reached an all-time high, seeing many people with decreased access to healthy, nutritious food across all parts of the planet. However, in today's world, approximately 98% of the malnourished population are living in less economically developed regions (Fig.1), showing us that the economy plays a huge role in global food security. 

• One of the biggest factors influencing the availability of food is climate change. Certain regions are experiencing increased drought, flooding and unprecedented natural disasters, which is having a major impact on our ability to grow certain food in affected areas and decreasing potential yield. Not to mention that food production itself is contributing  largely to climate change, creating a unsustainable cycle of food insecurity (but I will get into that more later).

• The way food is used can refer to the knowledge and care for our food, (e.g. understanding nutrition and food hygiene). It can also refer to what we actually DO with our food. Did you know that one third of all food produced is thrown away? ONE THIRD!?!?! What?!?! We destroy landscapes, produce tonnes of greenhouse emissions and waste precious water to produce our food just to throw ONE THIRD of it all away?!!! I can't help but find that truly horrifying…

It seems clear that our current methods of food production are unsustainable. With an increasing population projected to reach 9.6 billion by 2050, how do we intend to cope with this increasing demand sustainably, without irreparably damaging the Earth, and without leaving millions in food poverty? Before we can even begin to contemplate this huge question, we will need to take a look at what current food production practices are being utilised across the global and evaluate the environmental and social impacts these practices have. We will then consider the role modelling has in measuring these impacts and predicting the future. In my next post, I will starting by focusing on the industrial livestock production: past, present and future.

Follow me on Twitter: @chlobular for extra snippets regarding food production and climate change!

[1] FAO. 2002. The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2001. Rome.